Ah, But the Libyan Civil War Continueth - Next Comes Syria?

Apparently, some folks are calling for a coalition and "no fly zone" in Syria to prevent the slaughter of civilians from the Assad government and military there. Yes, it has been nothing short of brutal and atrocious. There has been a case precedents here recently, namely Libya and thus, perhaps the cash-strapped nations of NATO in Europe might go for another foray. There is also a green-light coming from the Arab neighbors for intervention, aid to the people, or even weapons for the rebels there. The humanitarian crisis is big, and it's serious.

Syria isn't exactly the same situation as in Libya, but it might be at least similar enough to have such an option on the table, and still look the international community in the eyes if something doesn't work out as planned, as in a much larger scale war erupting involving Russia and Iran for instance. There was a rather unfortunate story in the world media recently; "Libya's oil-rich east declares autonomy," which was reported on March 8, 2012, one of the more popular stories running through the internet stated;

"The declaration of an autonomous region in Cyrenaica in eastern Libya, which contains most of the country's oil, is the most serious threat to central authority in post-revolutionary Libya and could disrupt oil flows already threatened by the Persian Gulf crisis. The congressional declaration of 2,000 eastern political and tribal leaders in Benghazi, is a potentially serious blow to the shaky and fractious National Transitional Council, Libya's interim government based in Tripoli in the west."

Ah, a declaration of independence do we have now, well as you know those are generally considered fighting words, but with a now weakened central government in Libya, I ask; will we see some more re-drawing of maps on the African Continent in short order. It wasn't that long ago when Sudan divided itself in half, after a civil war, and with huge implications to oil flows.

If we are looking at Libya for the model here, well, it isn't exactly going too well, or over yet. If we are looking for Tunisia for the model of an Arab Spring or even Egypt for that matter, well, nothing is settled there either, including the dust. Therefore, if we do decide it is prudent to move on Syria, then we have to treat it as a totally separate case, unlike the others in many regards, and with even more far reaching implications for the region, some outcomes could be extremely fruitful, others, well, not so much.

Indeed, we should approach any potential solution with skepticism based on what we've learned, and yet not assume too many congruent similarities or potential eventualities the results of any action taken. Please consider all this and think on it.

Lance Winslow has launched a new provocative series of eBooks on Future Concepts. Lance Winslow is a retired Founder of a Nationwide Franchise Chain, and now runs the Online Think Tank; http://www.worldthinktank.net